Description: A method is presented which uses Bayes Lemma in an elementary way to construct posterior probabilities to be attached to each of several alternative prior distributions, given a few observations. The availability of efficient computer programs to numerically perform discrete convolutions for producing prior distributions makes this a practical method. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1978, Vol.2.

Description: A study of the effect of random interest rates on life insurance programs and on annuities both certain and non-certain. This is done under several assumptions on the stochastic structure of the interest rates.

Description: The author comments on the article Exposure Formulas Based on the Assumption of Uniform Distribution of Deaths written by T.N.E. Greville.

Description: This 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference is about the challenges of an aging population on retirement, Social Security, Medicare and long term care. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1998, Vol. 1.

Description: This dissertation is about methods for assessing mortality risk in regard to insurance and annuity transactions. Although the basic methods and formulas are general, most of the applications made here deal with life annuity transactions, with particular emphasis on pension situations.

Description: Actuaries and other managers of risk identify factors in modeling insurance risks because [i] they feel that these factors may cause the outcome of a risk, or [ii] that the factors can be managed, thus allowing analysts a degree of control over the system risk. The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for quantifying the relative importance of a source of risk. The intent is that, with a quantitative measure of relative importance, risk managers will be able to sharpen their intuition about the relative importance of risks and be better custodians of financial security systems. This paper proposes a measure of relative importance that has its roots in both the statistics and economics literatures. The measure is intuitively appealing when assessing the effectiveness of basic risk management techniques including risk exchange, pooling and financial risk management. The risk measure is also shown to be useful in multivariate situations where several factors affect a risk simultaneously. The paper illustrates this usefulness by considering a pool of policies that is subject to mortality, the risk of a disaster that is common to all policies, and to a common investment environment.

Description: This paper proposes a model for the incurred but not reported - IBNR- claims of an insurance company. This model will be fit to third party automobile bodily injury claims for which the months and years of occurrence of the accident are available. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 VOL. 1

Description: The main objective of this study is to analyze and control a surplus dependent risk process, where larger surpluses allow for a wider underwriting policy. We focus here mostly on the diffusion approximation of the risk process. The results are derived in two papers Brownian motion in Risk Theory, submitted for publication, and Surplus dependent risk processes defined by stochastic differential equations, in preparation. We only include here a long summary of these papers.

Description: This paper develops and discusses various relations between the Uniform Death Distribution and the Balducci curve. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE 1980, VOL. 2.

Description: In the context of insurance economics, the PH-transform is justified through some basic postulates on market premiums. In this paper the PH-transform is applied to the present value random variable in life insurance and annuities. It provides an alternative to the commonly used equivalence principle in life insurance and annuities premium calculation. This research project is sponsored by a joint AERF/CKER Grant of the Society of Actuaries.